Avian Flu

Avian flu has been headline news for several years now with varying speculation from virology experts on the likelihood of mutation, producing a human epidemic of massive proportions.  But speculation aside, it is clear that the persistent virus will not easily be controlled regardless of host.

Virus mutation means that it is impossible to stockpile vaccines to counter a potential epidemic.  And the problem we face with flu strains such as H5N1 is that its highly contagious nature, combined with its rapid and destructive lifecycle could decimate the population whilst we are still working to produce an effective vaccine.

Plans of action in the event of a pandemic have already been initiated and continue to evolve but what makes preparing for a pandemic unique in disaster management?

Disaster plans for viral epidemics require many factors to be considered and difficult decisions made which are not present in other disaster plans.

For example, given that manufacturers of antiviral medications and vaccines would not be able to keep up with demand when a pandemic strikes (it typically takes 6 months to develop an effective vaccine), determining which frontline response workers should be vaccinated first becomes priority. 

And quarantine measures will force many people to remain indoors, flooding internet and telephone company capacity whilst homebound employees attempt to perform their jobs without travelling to the office. 

Key functions of government, such as the treasury, could be affected by lack of staff and mandatory lockdowns.  Bearing this in mind, discussions on who would be considered an essential employee and how each agency would cope if these key people were incapacitated should be carried out. 

And arrangements for alternate locations to carry out vital government functions should be made well in advance of an outbreak. 

Countries we normally depend on for medical supplies in the Far East could be the hardest hit, so stock pile measures must be considered with regards to critical supply lines.

In the US, there has even been discussion of setting up drive-through examination rooms to help reduce the work load within hospitals, reserving hospital services for the critically ill.  These measures may be well justified if the estimates of an 18 month pandemic outbreak taking 1.9 million lives in the US alone, are even close to reality.

And factors which will dictate the distribution of vaccines and antivirals are being studied closer to determine if their use would be most effective for healthcare and front line professionals, or used on those who show symptoms as well as everyone in contact with them, to prevent the progression of the virus within the population.