Hurricane Forecasts and Predictions

Hurricanes and tropical storms are costly visitors both in terms of lives lost as well as structural devastation.  Hurricane Katrina alone cost the US more than $100 billion in clean-up and rebuilding works.

For disaster management professionals, tools which can predict where these storms will make landfall as well as how much destruction can be expected from subsequent wind and surge, are invaluable.  One example of the latest in cutting edge storm prediction technology is Tropical Storm Risk (TSR).

TSR was created by a group of climate physicists, meteorologists and statisticians at University College London and resulted from the UK government supported TSUNAMI initiative.  The model has increased the accuracy of forecasting predictions by an impressive 35% and revolutionised the way insurers and experts in disaster management plan for future hurricane seasons. 

Today TSR is not only used for hurricane prediction.  Its latest enhancements have added a real-time tropical storm tracker as well as rainfall, drought and Euro tempest prediction models.  And the TSR website provides a free alert service. 

So convinced are the creators of TSR of their prediction accuracy, their website includes detailed side-by-side reports comparing yearly forecasts against actual recorded weather events.  And the service has gained high regard, being utilised by both Reuters AlertNet and the United Nations World Food Programme, who receive tropical storm alerts generated through the TSR website. 

Compared to the seasoned veterans of hurricane forecasts, such as Colorado State University which derive their reports from historical trends, and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) who use a combination of historical record and computer generated simulation, the predictions made by TSR for this year are closely aligned. 

All three have predicted the 2007 hurricane season to have somewhere between 13 and 17 named storms with the probability of a record breaking year in terms of storm activity set at 84%.

In terms of what the future may hold for hurricane season forecasts, all eyes are on global dynamic computer models.  And the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECWMF) as well as UK Met Office’s GloSea are expanding their current systems. 

Matters relating to replacement of furnishings in storm damaged properties are being researched and this site will be updated on a regular basis.

The combination of technological advances and increased understanding of atmospheric events should make computer generated models even more accurate in the near future. 

Further information as well as statistical analysis of hurricane prediction can be found at http://tropicalstormrisk.org and Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre http://www.benfieldhrc.org/  

By comparison, the future of statistical hurricane forecasts will hang in the balance as human influenced climate change may continue to distort historical trends, making these predictions harder to substantiate.